Can Sastre make it a Tour double?(© Tim De Waele)
The 2009 Tour de France is shaping up to be one of the most exciting races in recent years when it gets going on Saturday 4 July. And with defending Tour winner Carlos Sastre, 2007 winner Alberto Contador and seven-times winner Lance Armstrong sizing up to each other, deciding who could win is far from easy.
So RCUK has asked a selection of industry insiders who they think might make an impression on the race, and who we should be keeping an eye on as the three-week race progresses.
Rebecca Charlton
In my mind Mark Cavendish is undoubtedly going into the Tour as the sprinter to beat, he’s proven time-and-time again that not only is he the fastest man in a bunch gallop but the team have that lead out train down to perfection.
Now enough of the patriotism; all eyes will be on Contador and Armstrong but could too many cooks spoil the broth at Astana? I have to give a mention to Andy Schleck who I think would put a smile on a fair few faces if he ruffled some feathers in the GC after proving his worth as a young rider with the Maillot Blanc last year. It’s going to be an exciting edition, for sure…
Guy Andrews
It could be a very interesting Tour this year. It’s anyone’s race really – so it’s hard to choose a out and out favourite. I was impressed with Carlos Sastre at the Giro, he broke away in the traditional old-skool climber’s way on Vesuvius and showed that he isn’t scared to attack. Cadel Evans is certainly going well, but he lacks the panache and the ability to mix a race up. Alberto Contador has a good chance, as for his American team mates, Lance Armstrong and Levi Leipheimer, well I think that Astana may well suffer from an embarrassment of talents and that they won’t have enough ‘sacrifice’ in the team in order to take control. On the other hand Sastre’s Cervelo team is strong, but more importantly, they are all there for him and him alone.
Mark Cavendish is the exciting ticket for British fans and I can see him managing to make it to Paris this year especially as he’s shown this year that he can hang on, I do worry that he’s still too impatient though. Then on the other hand that seems to be what fuels his talents. I expect Bradley Wiggins could do well in the prologue and David Millar may surprise a few as it’s a good distance for him. The Team Time Trial next Tuesday may well see Garmin and High Road fighting it out head to head for the win, as they did in the Giro, and I can’t wait for that one.
The penultimate stage up Ventoux could be the upset that the Tour needs to keep the race exciting. If you crack on the Ventoux you can loose half an hour in a few kilometers, so expect fireworks and I wouldn’t be too surprised if the race is decided there. I hope so, the Tour needs some unpredictability and I’m glad that the organisers made it late in the race, it shows a spirit of imagination and daring.
So who will be on the podium in Paris? I’m not really sure, but my predictions for a top three would have to be:
1. Carlos Sastre
2. Alberto Contador
3. Cadel Evans
Mike Cotty
Team Astana certainly have strength in depth, the internal rivalry between Alberto Contador and Lance Armstrong may well add to the entertainment factor on the road to Paris.
Although still young, Andy Schleck is a year older (and wiser) and after a dominant classics campaign winning Leige-Bastogne-Leige and placing 2nd in La Flèche Wallonne, he’s sure to be a contender. Cadel Evans, second in the last two editions, will no doubt be consistent once again but could lack the edge with little team support.
And finally, Roman Kreuziger from Liquigas could well turn some heads. Twice winner of the Tour of Romandie and third in the Tour de Suisse have shown he’s in great form.
Rich Land
Without a doubt Lance will be a threat come 4 July. He may have been out of the game for a while, but post cancer he has never turned up to come second. I don’t expect this year to be any different so it should make the power struggle within Astana interesting as the current Grand Tour Don, Mr Contador to you and me, will no doubt have the same mindset. Not including Chris Horner in the lineup may be of a benefit psychologically to Contador but his absence will be a big loss to the team.
Cervelo TestTeam arrive with the defending champion on board, but the new squad is more than a one trick pony. With Thor and Henrick there is a real chance that they could bag the Green Jersey. With no egos to speak of on the Team and no question of who is the leader, this will be a Team to watch, and remember Sastre has the ability to carry his form over two Grand Tour races.
Silence Lotto have had by anybodies standards a disppointing year. This will mean that there is loads of pressure stacked up against Evans. I am going all out in saying that I think he wont win and if luck may only get to the 3rd step on the podium.
The Garmin boys are playing a canny game. If you follow Christian Vande Velde on Twitter you get one impression of what’s going on and another from the official press releases. My guess is that he will improve on his overall position from last year having a Team soley built around him. Wiggins is looking fit, climbing better than ever and this will probably scare the crap out of some Teams with his time trailing abilities.
Mark Cavendish is where the real story is for Columbia. With the six-time Green Jersey winner Zabel as an adviser i would bet against him taking the Green jersey overall. Information on the finish of each sprint stage has been gathered. Apparently the plan is that Zabel will go ahead of the peloton on these key stages to advise the DS of weather and road conditions to give Cavendish that extra 1%.
Overall I expect this years race to be exciting offering more soap opera than Eastenders, Coronation St and the rest put together. Roll on Saturday.
So the final standings, time to throw my hat into the ring:
1. Lance Armstrong
2. Carlos Sastre
3. Andy Schleck
So, what do you think of that? Do you agree or disagree with any of the observations and points made? Let’s hear your thoughts and predictions in the forum thread below.
