For the second time in less than a week, the nation will stop to watch a cycle race.
With ITV reporting viewing figures of 3.6 million for Bradley Wiggins’ coronation as Tour de France champion in Paris last Sunday, the Olympic road race on Saturday looks set to attract significantly more than a hardcore of cycling fans.
We’ll be analyzing the chances of a host of nations in the last few days before the riders set off on a 250km loop from London to Surrey and a finish on the Mall. We’ll roll out with two of the favourites: Great Britain and Belgium.
The road race can perhaps be classified into teams who will race in one of two styles: those seeking to control the race for a sprint finish on the Mall, and those with riders strong enough to break away from the peloton and spoil Mark Cavendish’s day.
Cavendish has made no secret of his desire to win the race and add an Olympic gold medal to a palmares that boasts 23 Tour de France stage wins, victory in the 2011 Tour’s green jersey competition, and a world road race championship.
Incredibly, Cavendish was the only member of the Great Britain cycling team to leave Beijing without a medal, after he and Bradley Wiggins finished a disappointing ninth in the Madison. The Manxman will be keen to right that wrong.
He will be supported in his effort by arguably the strongest team in the race. Newly-crowned Tour champion, Wiggins, will hope to reprise his tremendous pace-setting efforts for Cavendish witnessed on stages eighteen and twenty of the Tour, and at the world road race championships in Copenhagen last year.
David Millar will be another hoping to reprise his performance at Copenhagen, where, serving as road captain, he helped steer Cavendish to the greatest win of his career. Victory on stage twelve of this year’s Tour proved the Scot is in superb form and a post-race interview extolling the virtues of clean athletes proved (again) that he is a worthy selection.
Chris Froome’s Tour de France performances were only eclipsed by overall victor Wiggins and Cavendish, winner of three stages. His sterling support of Wiggins, consistently pacing the Londoner on the climbs, proved his ability to assist Cavendish on Saturday, where the 27-year-old will support the sprinter on nine climbs of Box Hill.
Ian Stannard is enjoying arguably his best season. A strong ride in the Giro d’Italia, and victories from the front in the IG Nocturne and national road race championships proved the Essex rider a ‘diesel’ par excellence and one well equipped to offer Cavendish a wheel into London.
Racing on a 250km route with a closer resemblance to a spring Classics course than a flat Grand Tour stage, the Belgian team must start among the favourites. In Tom Boonen and Philippe Gilbert, they have arguably the two finest examples of the breed. Great Britain must control their attacks if they’re to deliver Cavendish to the Mall with a chance of victory.
Boonen dominated this year’s spring Classics, taking a record-equaling fourth victory at Paris-Roubaix, and becoming the first rider in history twice to win the Tour of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix in the same season. He will start the Olympic road race with a broken rib after a crash earlier this month in the Tour of Poland – a race he selected in preference to the Tour de France to hone his form for London.
Boonen’s dominance this year is almost equalled Gilbert’s form of 2011, when as soon-to-be Belgian national road and time trial champion he won all three Ardennes Classics, the Strade Bianche, and finished the season UCI world number one. The illustrious pair can call for support on BMC Racing’s Greg Van Avermaet, who, like Boonen, enjoyed a strong spring Classics campaign, as well as Stijn Vandenbergh and Jurgen Roelandts.
The Belgians’ route to victory is likely to come from a breakaway; witness Boonen’s solo march into Roubaix. The Flandrian is still a formidable sprinter (his method of victory in this year’s Tour of Flanders) but he is unlikely to seek a confrontation with Cavendish on the Mall if he can avoid it. Equally, Gilbert will seek to use his strength on short, stubborn climbs (witness his performances on the bergs of the Ardennes; see also his win on the Mont des Alouettes on stage one of the 2011 Tour de France).
Tomorrow: Germany and Switzerland
